The Netherlands: Economic Outlook Amid Summer Trade Talks

While much of the Netherlands slows down for summer holidays—CBS reports that about 70% of Dutch residents take time off between May and September (CBS, 2025)—European and American diplomats have been finalizing a trade deal just ahead of the August 1 deadline. Although not all the details are public, early analysis suggests the agreement will have only a limited effect on the broader Dutch economy, though certain sectors may feel the impact more strongly.

New figures from Statistics Netherlands show that the economy grew by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, a slower pace than expected, but stronger first-quarter results led to an upward revision in forecasts (CBS, 2025). Growth for the full year is now estimated at 1.7%, with a slowdown to 1.2% expected in 2026 (RaboResearch, 2025). Consumer spending dipped slightly in the second quarter after a strong start to the year, yet remains a key driver of growth along with government expenditure. With unemployment stable at 3.8% in June (CBS, Labour Market Monitor 2025), household consumption is expected to remain resilient. Inflation stood at 2.5% in July, and projections now put the annual average at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 (RaboResearch, Inflation Monitor 2025). Imports rose sharply in the second quarter, up 2.6% quarter-on-quarter, largely due to increased investment in large transport equipment such

as ships and airplanes (CBS, International Trade 2025).

The EU-US trade deal introduces a 15% American tariff on European goods. Unlike earlier disputes, the European Union will not impose counter-tariffs. At the same time, the EU has pledged to purchase more US products, including energy and defense equipment, and to channel roughly USD 600 billion in new investments into the United States (European Commission, 2025). For the Netherlands, which is highly trade-dependent, the impact at the national level will be minimal. Economists at RaboResearch note that the difference between a 10% and 20% tariff on European goods translates to only 0.1 percentage point in GDP growth, meaning the agreed 15% tariff does not materially alter the economic forecast (RaboResearch, 2025). The absence of EU retaliation also means European consumers and businesses will not face extra inflationary pressure as a result of the deal.

Beneath the national averages, however, sector-level effects may be more visible. Manufacturing, which sends around 60% of its production abroad, is particularly sensitive to changes in trade flows (CBS, Manufacturing Statistics 2025). Output grew only 0.5% in May, and forecasts for 2025 remain modest at between 1.6% and 1.8%, depending on tariff assumptions (RaboResearch, 2025). Higher sector-specific tariffs, such as the 50% levy currently applied to European steel and aluminium, add further uncertainty. Dutch aluminium producers have reported that niche products not made in the US remain in demand, but many companies remain hesitant to expand production given uncertainty about how long such tariffs will last (FD, 2025).

Wholesale trade and transport also stand to be affected. Lower exports mean fewer goods to ship and distribute, although much of international shipping is carried out by non-Dutch operators. In June, RaboResearch projected that the Dutch transport sector would expand by 1.7% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026. With the new deal being slightly more favorable than expected, these figures may be adjusted upward when revised forecasts are published in September (RaboResearch, 2025).

In sum, the Dutch economy continues to show modest but steady growth, supported by strong

employment and consumer spending. The EU-US trade agreement is unlikely to reshape the national outlook, but key export-oriented sectors such as manufacturing, wholesale trade, and transport will need to adapt to higher tariffs and shifting global demand. As more complete second-quarter data becomes available, updated forecasts later in the year will provide a clearer sense of how businesses are navigating the new trade landscape.